Running a business in uncertain times: What you can do

There is a unique pressure that comes with running a business during global instability, and as business owners, we’ve had to do it a lot over the past few years. You might have caught the recent address by the Australian Prime Minister, who noted that while his country isn’t directly affected by the Middle East conflict, every citizen is paying for it at the pump and the supermarket.

The UK finds itself in a similar boat. We are fortunate to be distanced from the direct horror of the war, but the economic ripples are hitting our shores with clinical precision.

At A4G, we don’t believe in catastrophising. However, we do believe in being “brutally honest” with the data. Recent British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) stats show that even before the latest escalations, 57% of firms reported high levels of uncertainty. That’s a 10% jump in just one month.

The “Knock-on” Effect 

The challenge for most business owners right now isn’t a single “big bang” crisis like the pandemic. Instead, it’s a cumulative pressure that makes everything feel slightly more difficult than it should be. Here is how that is manifesting:

• The Cost Base is rising: It isn’t just the headline fuel price and energy increases. It’s the delivery surcharge from your supplier, the utility contract renewal, and the incremental rise in materials.

• National Minimum wage increase: The National Minimum Wage increase isn’t the only impact. General pay expectations are rising across the board due to the cost of living. This is another hit on the cost of overheads. The BCC reports that 73% of firms are citing labour costs as their primary pressure right now.

• Tax Efficiency is being squeezed: The 6 April 2026 changes mean the goalposts have moved again. Dividend tax rates are increasing (Basic rate to 10.75%, Higher rate to 35.75%). Simultaneously, threshold freezes (fiscal drag) mean more of your profit is being pulled into higher tax bands. You have less flexibility in how you extract profit.

• Customers are changing behaviour: We are seeing a hesitation in the market. Sales cycles are getting longer, and customers are becoming more price-sensitive. They aren’t necessarily saying “no,” but they are delaying decisions, creating a bottleneck in your forecasted revenue.

• Cash flow is the pressure point: Higher costs up-front combined with slower money coming in creates issues even in profitable businesses. You’re working harder just to keep the same amount of cash in the bank.

This is personal, too

As a business owner, these pressures don’t stay at the office. There is a stress that comes from seeing your tax efficiency squeezed by dividend tax increases and threshold freezes (fiscal drag), while simultaneously managing a business that requires more cash up-front just to stand still.

When your mortgage is increasing and your business margins are thinning, it’s easy to feel like you’re being hit from all sides. You aren’t alone in feeling this; it is a collective experience across the SME community right now.

What can you do?

Here is what we are advising our clients to focus on right now:

1. Stress-Test Your Cashflow: Don’t wait for the bank balance to look low. Run “what-if” scenarios. What happens if your biggest customer takes an extra 30 days to pay? What if your energy costs jump another 15%? Knowing the number allows you to act before it becomes a crisis.
2. Review Pricing Frequently: Many businesses are “planning to raise prices” (3.7% on average according to the Bank of England). If your costs have gone up, your prices must follow. Waiting too long to pass on costs is the fastest way to erode your personal income.
3. Tighten the Sales Process: Because customers are hesitant, your follow-up needs to be tighter. Don’t leave proposals “in the air.” Address the elephant in the room, the uncertainty, and show them why your service is a necessity, not a luxury, in a volatile market.
4. Protect Your Extraction Strategy: With dividend tax rates rising (Basic rate to 10.75%, Higher rate to 35.75% from April 2026), the way you take money out of the business needs to be precise. We still find the salary/dividend split is best for most, but the “margin for error” has disappeared.

Looking ahead

The BCC survey shows that while confidence is fragile, nearly half of firms still expect turnover to improve. There is growth to be had, but it won’t be “accidental” growth. It will belong to the owners who look the current reality in the face, adjust their overheads, and refuse to let the “silent slowdown” dictate their future.