Today (4th November), Reeves delivered a rare pre-Budget speech from Downing Street

She framed the forthcoming Budget (on 26 November) as one rooted in “growth, fairness and strong foundations”.

Does this mean the Budget speech will be shorter at the end of the month? I doubt it.

Some commentators have been saying there is a £20-25bn gap in the public finances. Some have said that the cut in Employers NI in 2022-2023 cost over £20bn. The Labour manifesto ruled out this obvious and simple tax to recoup this: returning NI rates to their pre-COVID %s.

The other reason that this legislative easy option is unlikely to happen is because the general trend of thinking appears to be that they want to scrap employees NI altogether.

So what will she do at the end of the month? Clearly today’s speech was setting the scene for why some promises will be broken in a few weeks’ time.

An interesting option we heard this morning was the possibility of an NI cut and an Income Tax rise (first it giveth then it taketh away), a move that would result in some complicated changes to the effective rates of tax employees and business owners pay alike, but also increases the tax burden on those receiving pensions.

It’s just speculation at this time, but since this is the opposite of the simplest solution, it feels quite a likely surprise to be sprung on us with just enough muddy water to deflect that they have broken a manifesto promise.

She did not sugar-coat the backdrop: she referenced high borrowing costs, low productivity, global trade headwinds, volatile supply chains, inflation stubbornly high.

And crucially, she refused to rule out tax rises despite previous manifesto pledges not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance for working people.

All of this matters, particularly for businesses large and small, who now need to interpret what this means for the year ahead.

autumn budget tax rise son the horizon

What Reeves actually said

  • She highlighted the difficult economic backdrop: weak productivity, persistent global inflation, infrastructure gaps, and uncertainty from international events. In her view, tough decisions are needed now.
  • She did not rule out breaking the Labour manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, VAT, or National Insurance. When asked directly, she avoided a yes or no answer, signalling that the government’s focus is on the national interest.
  • She reaffirmed two fiscal rules:
     1. No borrowing to fund day-to-day spending by the end of this Parliament
     2. Reducing government debt as a share of national income by the same point

Put simply: if the numbers don’t add up, tax rises and spending cuts are on the table.

What this could mean for your business

  • Cashflow pressures: Changes in corporate taxes, employer National Insurance contributions, or other levies could affect day-to-day cashflow. Planning ahead is crucial to avoid unpleasant surprises
  • Capital investment timing: Reliefs such as capital allowances or R&D tax credits may be adjusted. Acting sooner or deferring projects could make a material difference to your tax position
  • Owner remuneration: Salaries, dividends, pensions, and benefits need reviewing to ensure they remain tax-efficient under any new rules
  • Staff costs and retention: Higher taxes or reduced allowances could indirectly affect wage expectations or recruitment, while uncertainty can affect morale
  • Strategic decisions: Expansion plans, acquisitions, or restructuring may need re-evaluating in light of possible increased costs or reduced incentives

Our advice now

There is very little any of us can do to change the Chancellor’s mind on tax as individuals. As we have said before, we have to control the controllables.

Review your budgets and forecasts – include scenarios where taxes go up or reliefs are reduced.

Recalculate what your personal net income requirement is – knowing what you need the business to pay you, after all taxes, is essential for driving real and important targets for your business.

Think about timing for capital investment – sometimes acting sooner or later can make a material difference depending on tax changes.

How A4G can help

What Rachel Reeves’ speech underlines is that the Government is preparing for tougher choices, and those choices can come through directly into your business decisions.

We always recommend clients be proactive, not reactive. We can help you navigate:

– What tax and relief changes may mean for you

– How to assess whether you should act now (or defer) an investment or acquisition

We can help you check the tax impact on your existing earning structure and, perhaps more importantly, help convert this into targets and budgets for your business.

Protect your business from tax surprises

Stay ahead of the Autumn Budget

On 26th November, as soon as the Autumn Budget is announced, we’ll send our exclusive A4G Budget summary straight to your inbox. We pride ourselves on going beyond the headlines, getting to the heart of what the Budget really means for business owners, and delivering it before anyone else. You’ll get practical insights and actionable steps to plan ahead, so you’re not left reacting to the changes.

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And if you’re looking for a live update: Join us at our upcoming event where we’ll unpack the Budget for business owners, explain likely changes in tax, capital‑gains/Inheritance Tax/Business Asset Disposal Relief and help you come away with practical next steps.

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