Why optimism might not be the best strategy

For the past few years, businesses have faced wave after wave of disruption — from the pandemic and inflation to labour shortages, AI-driven change, rising costs, and global instability. Through all of it, one leadership lesson continues to stand out:

“The optimists died first”.

I wasn’t sure where it came from but I recalled a story about GIs who survived the terrible conditions in Vietnamese prisoner of war camps. 

But I couldn’t place where I’d read about it. Google had the answer of course. 

It’s almost 20 years since I read Jim Collins “From Good to Great”, one of the most widely read business books of all time. The “Stockdale Paradox” is just one small part of it but the message of survival is one that can be translated to business in times like this. And it’s one that stuck with me and helped me help my clients through the financial crash of 2008/09.

James Stockdale’s observation was that the optimists died first because they put unrealistic timescales on when they would be freed. When those timescales didn’t happen, they gave up. According to Stockdale, they literally died of a broken heart. 

The pessimists were next to go. They had no hope at all so eventually the fight drained out of them as well.

The paradox is that optimism is a necessity if your business is going to come out the other side. But it must be mixed with a healthy dose of pessimism about how long this is going to take. 

That mindset matters more than ever before.

But what’s your new normal? 

Or are you still trying to find it? Most owner-managers are.

Friend of the firm Steve Backley OBE recorded a little video for us  earlier today about the four stages of change which we think may help you get to wherever your new normal is going to be. The password is BackleyBlack. 

Wherever you are on the change model, I’d like to think we are helping you on your journey. Our new normal includes sending out technical updates on anything and everything that will help our clients from Sunday to Thursday. On Friday and Saturday nights, I get to go rogue and write my thoughts for the weekend. 

Tomorrow I will cover some practical ideas on what you as a business-owner can do if you find yourself with time on your hands. 

And then on Sunday, we will be following up our guidance earlier in the week with some of the finer details that you need to get right if you are furloughing staff next week. After that, who knows? We have at least 30 topics that we’ve been asked to cover, and we’ll try and get some content out there based on whatever we think is the greatest need.

If our articles are helping, please forward them on to other business owners you know. In the meantime, stay optimistic that we will come through this but remember this is a marathon not a sprint.

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